行业机械制造亚太工程机械重申对龙工的买入评级

机械制造：亚太 工程机械 重申对龙工的买入评级 类别： 机构： 研究员：

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January21,2010AsiaPacific:Machinery:ConstructionGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch1January21,2010AsiaPacific:Machinery:ConstructionConstructionmachinery:notallareequal;ReiterateBuyonLonkingTighteningconcernyieldsentryopportunityThesharepricesofLonking,Liugong,andSanyHeavydeclinedby7%/2.9%/2.1%onJanuary21,2010,webelievetriggeredbyrisingconcernsoverthegovernment’thinkthereactionofLonkinginparticularwassomewhatoverdonegivenourviewof(1)relativelystable,albeitslowing,growthininfrastructurespending,and(2)strongminingdemanddynamics,thusleavingLonkingatanattractivevaluation,giventhatitssharepricehasfallenby16%sinceitsrecentpeakonJanuary11,cusonvaluationanddefensiveproducts:LonkingWethinkconcernsonthepropertysegmentwillcontinuetoweighonproductsthathaveahigherproportionofenddemandfromproperty,whichiscurrentlywidelyconsideredasbeingthesectormostvulnerabletothegovernment’stighteningpolicy,suchascementequipment(SanyHeavy).Wethinkproductsthattypicallyarelessdrivenbydemandfromthepropertysectorshouldbemoredefensivee.g.,Loaders(LiugongandLonking).Moreover,ourGSCommoditiesteamcontinuestohighlightdemandstrengthinthecoalmarket,whichinourview,reiterateourBuyrecommendationonLonking( )givenits(1)highloaderexposure(74%of09Erevenue),(2)limitedpropertyend-demandexposure,and( )relativelylowvaluationof11X2010EP/r12-monthtargetpriceofHK$6.7isbasedonEV/OCI/WACCmethodology,implying15X2010EP/Eand . X2010EP/talystThekeycatalystsare(1)strengthinMarch/Aprilhighseasonsalesvolume,whereweexpectexcavatorvolumestoreach400/266units(together+49%yoy),andloadervolumetoreach4800/ 500units(together+ 9%yoy).(2)sksKeyrisks:(1)Continuedexcavatormarketpenetrationandloadervolumerecovery,(2)pricecompetition,( )tingsandTargetpricesRatings12-monthtargetpriceSanyNeutral 5.105%LiugongNeutral24.8017%LonkingBuy6.7024%EPSestimatesRmb2009E2010E2011ESany1.401.982.45Liugong1.251.872.04Lonking0.290.4 0.50OverviewMarketCapP/E(X)P/E(X)(US$mn)2009E2010ESanyHeavy7,2542 .716.8Liugong1,9 717.011. Lonking1,50416.211.1EV/EBITDA(X)P/B(X)P/B(X)2010E2009E2010ESany10.55.44.1Liug用纯熟的“牛场话”与大家交流教育问题。他问大家ong8.0 .8 .2Lonking9.1 .12.6Potentialupside/downsideNote:TargetpricesarebasedonEV/OCI/urce:DataStream,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesTommyWong+886(2)27 |ng@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,TaipeiBranchTheGoldmanSachsGroup,aresult,rRegACcertification,herimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification, eGold给百度的客户更大的回报manSachsGroup,obalInvestmentResearchJanuary21,2010AsiaPacific:Machinery:ConstructionGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2Exhibit1:LonkingandLiugongaremostsensitivetoloadervolumeforecastdrivenby